Scenario
This was my first flight as PIC after a successful left seat check previous day on the Bombardier Challenger 604. The aircraft from Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja was due to depart at 1600 and arrive at Ilorin International Airport in 40 minutes. A squall line with strong thunderstorms and rain was anticipated for Abuja and surrounding airports of Kaduna and Jos from 1800 to 2000, according to the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast for Abuja and neighboring airports of Kaduna and Jos. The VIP arrived the aircraft at 1630 and the race to get back into Abuja before the adverse weather activity, began.
Hazards
We understood the severe thunderstorm activity overhead the airport would begin within an hour after contacting dispatch for an update on Abuja METAR in preparation for departure Ilorin at 1720. Runway contamination, wind shear, possible airport closure, and unavailability of our alternate airport were all risks we would face because both were in the path of the squall system.
Risk Analysis and Management
Because most airports in the area are sunrise to sunset restricted, including Ilorin, our departure airport, which would close at 1835 due to sunset, there could be a fuel issue in getting to a viable alternative. The company’s options were to spend the night in Ilorin and cancel the 0630 departure from Abuja the next morning for London Stansted, which would result in a significant revenue loss, or find a way to depart before the airport closed, land at a nearby airport, and wait out the weather in Abuja, or depart for Abuja and wait for weather improvement before landing in Abuja. Probability for occurrence was almost certain in our state with current fuel and the severity of the hazard was considerable.The worst-case situation would be a crash owing to fuel exhaustion, putting the crew and equipment in grave danger.
As the manager, I was tasked with making decisions and accepting risks, so I conferred with my team, and we concluded that returning to Abuja was an acceptable risk given the controls in place. Take extra petrol to allow us a four-hour endurance; this will ensure a detour to Kano or Lagos if the weather does not improve; Kano is 45 minutes from Abuja and Lagos is an hour. The second control was to delay departure from Ilorin until almost airport closure time, then taxi out at 1825 because it was a short taxi for runway 23 departure. This control ensured that we would fly at a minimum clean speed and arrive in Abuja for holding by 1930, leaving 30 minutes for expected thunderstorm activity. Our expertise of weather systems in these locations indicated that thunderstorm cells would dissipate in 30 minutes.
Outcome
By topping up on fuel and departing 3 minutes before the airport closed, we performed risk management as indicated. We were routed 30 miles north of the Airfield to join a sequence of holding in an area where the thunderstorms had passed. However, another cell from the squall swept in, and ATC vectored the stacked aircrafts to the south of the Airfield in a similar queue, with the long haul arrivals diverting to Kano for refueling and returning to Abuja. The bad weather lasted past the projected period until 2022, when ATC reopened the runway and commenced approaches. We landed at 2020, which gave us the intended result of reduced fuel consumption than flying to Lagos to wait out the weather before returning to Abuja, as well as enough rest for our London departure at 0630 the next morning.
Lessons Learnt
Planning is crucial in Operational Risk Management because risk is easier to manage during the planning stages of operations (Federal Aviation Administration [FAA], 2000). During the execution, we reevaluated how much longer we could hold before a safe diversion with each weather update during the cruise and during the hold, taking into account information from Kano and Lagos. It’s a wonderful feeling when a well-thought-out strategy yields the desired result.
Reference
Federal Aviation Administration. (2000, December 30). FAA System Safety Handbook,Chapter 15: Operational Risk Management https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/risk_management/ss_handbook/media/Chap15_1200.pdf